Federal Conservatives Staying Ahead in Nanos Poll

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Prime Minister in Thunder Bay
Prime Minister Harper -stock image
THUNDER BAY – A little of the fizz has come off of the “Orange Crush” surge of support for the New Democrats, as a result of the news that Jack Layton is fighting a battle against cancer. For the Conservatives some of the party’s post election glow has faded somewhat, with support returning to its previously normal level in the mid to high 30s. Despite this, support for the Conservatives remains significantly higher than for other parties – the New Democrats and the Liberals are tied in the mid 20s range. Those are the findings of the latest CTV/Globe/Nanos Poll published earlier today.

The NDP continues to enjoy strong support in Quebec, although this has also come down in view of Jack Layton’s recent health news, adding fuel to the view that the NDP’s ballot box support in May was largely a Layton phenomenon.

Meanwhile, the Tory post election drop in support has occurred when the government was less focused on the economy and more focused on issues like crime and cancelling the long gun registry. In the same period Liberal support increased five points nationally. However, interim Liberal leader Bob Rae’s leadership numbers remain very weak, suggesting that the increase in Liberal support is likely more about the party being a parking place for voters in light of current Conservative policy focus.

Healthcare retained and strengthened its place as the top national unprompted issue of concern.

Methodology:

Between July 25th and August 2nd, Nanos Research conducted a random telephone survey of 1,203 Canadians 18 years of age and older. A random telephone survey of 1,203 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

For 1,015 committed voters, it is accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Results for June 2011 are from a random telephone survey of 1,211 Canadians conducted between June 16th and 19th, 2011. A random telephone survey of 1,211 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Here are the Poll Questions:

National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only – First Preference)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from June 2011 (n=983).
*Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters.

Canada (n=1,015 committed voters)
Conservative 36.2% (-5.6)
Liberal 27.0% (+4.7)
NDP 26.8% (-1.2)
Green 4.5% (+0.8)
Bloc Quebecois 4.4% (+1.0)
*Undecided 15.6% (-3.2)

Top Issue Question: What is your most important NATIONAL issue of concern? [Unprompted]

*The numbers in parentheses denote the change from June 2011 (n=983).

Healthcare 33.0% (+7.3)
Jobs/economy 23.0% (-0.9)
Education 6.3% (-2.6)
The environment 5.7% (-2.9)
Debt/deficit 5.0% (+0.9)
Unsure 9.0% (+3.5)

Leadership Index Questions: As you may know, [Rotate] Bob Rae is the interim leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Jack Layton is the leader of the federal NDP, and Elizabeth May is the leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as: (n=1,203)

Readers should note that both Michael Ignatieff and Gilles Duceppe have been dropped from the Leadership Index tracking.

Leadership Index Score
Jack Layton 88.5
Stephen Harper 86.9
Bob Rae 25.6
Elizabeth May 8.7

The Most Trustworthy Leader (n=1,203)
Jack Layton 32.7%
Stephen Harper 25.9%
Bob Rae 8.4%
Elizabeth May 3.9%
None: 10.1%
Unsure: 19.0%

The Most Competent Leader (n=1,203)
Stephen Harper 32.3%
Jack Layton 25.9%
Bob Rae 9.4%
Elizabeth May 1.9%
None: 7.7%
Unsure: 22.8%

The Leader with the Best Vision for Canada’s Future (n=1,203)
Jack Layton 29.9%
Stephen Harper 28.7%
Bob Rae 7.8%
Elizabeth May 2.9%
None: 8.3%
Unsure: 22.4%