Conservatives Holding onto Lead in Polls – Greens ‘Imploding’?


Canadian PoliticsTHUNDER BAY – The latest CTV/Globe/Nanos poll has the Harper Conservatives with an 11 point lead nationally over the Ignatieff Liberals. Of note, support for the Conservatives has dropped in the Prairie provinces outside of the margin of error for the survey but the Tories still have a commanding lead in that region.

Asked about what the most important factor was in influencing their support, Canadians cited the policies of the party. Both the party leaders and traditional party allegiances were rated quite low. Policy was more likely to be cited by Canadians living in the Prairies and BC compared to other regions of Canada.

Still, in terms of the Nanos Leadership Index, Stephen Harper registered a significant 16 point drop in the past month from 98.9 points to 82.8 points. This is the most dramatic one month drop in the past two years for Harper. He still enjoys a 30 point lead over Layton and Ignatieff, but his advantage on competence and vision have softened in the past month.

The fieldwork for this particular national survey was completed prior to the Bruce Carson accusations.

National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only – First Preference)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the Nanos National Omnibus conducted between February 11th and February 14th, 2011 (n=1,016; committed voters only n=826).

Canada (n=949 committed voters)

Conservative 38.6% (-1.1)

Liberal 27.6% (+1.0)

NDP 19.9% (+1.0)

Bloc Quebecois 10.1% (+0.2)

Green 3.8% (-1.1)

Undecided 22.0% (+3.2)

Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]?

Traditionally Vote for Party 9.6%

Party Leader 20.0%

Party Policies 48.3%

Local Candidate 12.3%

Unsure 9.9%

Leadership Index Questions: As you may know, [Rotate] Michael Ignatieff is the leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Jack Layton is the leader of the federal NDP, Gilles Duceppe is the leader of the Bloc Quebecois and Elizabeth May is the leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the Nanos National Omnibus survey completed between February 11th and February 14th, 2011 (n=1,016).

Leadership Index Score:

Stephen Harper: 82.8 (-16.1)

Jack Layton: 51.4 (+7.8)

Michael Ignatieff: 39.7 (+2.8)

Gilles Duceppe: 21.5 (+3.8)

Elizabeth May: 11.6 (-1.1)

The Most Trustworthy Leader:

Stephen Harper: 26.6% (-2.5)

Jack Layton: 17.2% (+0.5)

Michael Ignatieff: 12.7% (+1.8)

Gilles Duceppe: 8.5% (+0.8)

Elizabeth May: 4.3% (-1.5)

The Most Competent Leader:

Stephen Harper: 29.8% (-7.1)

Jack Layton: 15.9% (+3.8)

Michael Ignatieff: 12.5% (-0.2)

Gilles Duceppe: 8.6% (+1.7)

Elizabeth May: 3.4% (+0.8)

The Leader with the Best Vision for Canada’s Future:

Stephen Harper: 26.4% (-6.5)

Jack Layton: 18.3% (+3.5)

Michael Ignatieff: 14.5% (+1.2)

Gilles Duceppe: 4.4% (+1.3)

Elizabeth May: 3.9% (-0.4)

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