Tropical Storm Arthur – First Named Storm of Season

Tropical Storm Arthur

Storm Expected to Slide Along Eastern Seaboard

THUNDER BAY – Weather along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States is going to be impacted by Tropical Storm Arthur the first named storm of the season. By the weekend, the storm, according to the latest tracking model may be impacting Nova Scotia and then by late Sunday into Newfoundland.

Environment Canada reports, “Tropical storm Arthur east of Florida forecast to parallel the U.S. East Coast as a hurricane this week – may play a role in Atlantic Canada weather this weekend”.

The Weather Service states, “We are analysing the development of tropical storm Arthur and latest computer model forecasts to gain an early indication of how the storm may affect weather in Atlantic Canada this weekend. The tropical storm is expected to intensify to hurricane strength tonight as it moves slowly northeastward not far off the U.S. East Coast. A trough of low pressure will be moving eastward from the Great Lakes, guiding Arthur toward Atlantic Canada. The nature of the trough approaching from the Great Lakes will make all the difference in Arthur’s intensity, track and structure as it moves toward our region. Scenarios range from a direct effect with wind and rain to a well-offshore track with perhaps just rain from the trough, drawing moisture from the tropical system”.

Visit weather.gc.ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest hurricane track map.

Tropical Storm Arthur

Arthur gains strength, likely to become season’s first hurricane

000
WTNT31 KNHC 021742
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
200 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

...ARTHUR EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE NORTH FLORIDA
COAST TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 79.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE
CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
ARTHUR.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.  HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS.  THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...2 TO 4 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA