Federal Politics – Conservatives and NDP up, Liberals down

Parliament HillTHUNDER BAY – As Parliament is about to resume sitting, Nik Nanos is offering a picture of where the parties stand in support from Canadians. The latest Globe/CTV/Nanos tracking poll on the federal political scene show that while both the Conservatives and the NDP are up, the Liberals are down.

The national ballot stands at 39.5% for the Tories, 33.1% for the NDP, 20.7% for the Grits and 3.4% for the Greens (Bloc support stood at 2.6% nationally or 9.6% in Quebec). Over the past 30 days, significant shifts occurred in the province of Quebec in favour of the New Democrats and in favour of the Conservatives in Ontario.
Support levels for the main parties are currently similar to the last federal election results.

On the leadership front, Harper enjoys a commanding advantage while both NDP Interim Leader Nycole Turmel and Liberal Interim Leader Bob Rae noticeably trail Harper on trust, vision and competence. Turmel and Rae are statistically tied on trust and competence, while Turmel scored higher than Rae on vision (16.1% of Canadians compared to 10.3% of Canadians for Rae).

The percentage of Canadians who were unsure which of the leaders were trustworthy, competent or had the best vision for Canada jumped noticeably in the first wave of research since the passing away of Jack Layton.

When asked about the most important national issue of concern, healthcare remains the top unprompted issue but jobs/the economy, the second ranked issue, has closed the gap (healthcare number one issue 30.8%, jobs/the economy 26.3%).

National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only – First Preference)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from August 2011 (n=1,015).
*Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters.

Canada (n=939 committed voters)
Conservative 39.5% (+3.3)
NDP 33.1% (+6.3)
Liberal 20.7% (-6.3)
Green 3.4% (-1.1)
Bloc Quebecois 2.6% (-1.8)
*Undecided 22.4% (+6.8)

Top Issue Question: What is your most important NATIONAL issue of concern? [Unprompted]

*The numbers in parentheses denote the change from August 2011 (n=1,015).

Healthcare 30.8% (-2.2)
Jobs/economy 26.3% (+3.3)
Education 6.7% (+0.4)
The environment 5.4% (-0.3)
High taxes 5.0% (+0.3)
Unsure 8.1% (-0.9%)

Leadership Index Questions: As you may know, [Rotate] Bob Rae is the interim leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Nycole Turmel is the interim leader of the federal NDP, and Elizabeth May is the leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as: the most trustworthy, the most competent, the leader with the best vision for Canada. (n=1,210)

Readers should note that Jack Layton, Michael Ignatieff and Gilles Duceppe are no longer on the Leadership Index tracking.

Leadership Index Score
Stephen Harper 101.8
Nycole Turmel 38.3
Bob Rae 33.8
Elizabeth May 13.9

The Most Trustworthy Leader (n=1,210)
Stephen Harper 31.0%
Unsure: 21.8%
None: 16.4%
Nycole Turmel 12.3%
Bob Rae 11.3%
Elizabeth May 7.2%

The Most Competent Leader (n=1,210)
Stephen Harper 38.7%
Unsure: 26.3%
None: 10.4%
Bob Rae 12.2%
Nycole Turmel 9.9%
Elizabeth May 2.5%

The Leader with the Best Vision for Canada’s Future (n=1,210)
Stephen Harper 32.1%
Unsure 26.9%
Nycole Turmel 16.1%
Bob Rae 10.3%
None 10.3%
Elizabeth May 4.2%